The Mets and Phillies will light up the scoreboard | Premier League pick of the weekend with Fulham and Arsenal
I’m moving next month. After living in my current home since 2013, we’ve found a new home that we’re extremely excited to call ours, but there’s one problem: the moving part. I wish I could snap my fingers, and suddenly everything that needs to be done in our current house has been done, and everything we’re bringing to the new house was already where it needs to be, but that’s not possible. At least, I don’t think so. Is it? Why hasn’t Elon Musk solved this problem yet?
Anyway, yes, moving sucks. It was so much easier when I was 20 and had nothing. I could just wrap my clothes in trash bags, put the TVs, couch, and mattress in the back of a truck, and start over somewhere else. It’s not that simple anymore. At the very least, it gives a person an idea of how much useless bullshit they have accumulated over the years. When faced with the simple question “do I need this or can I just throw it away”, you’d be surprised how easily you decide to throw away something you’ve spent the last decade believing to be important to you.
So yes, moving is horrible. I do not recommend it. Just live where you are forever.
Alright, while I decide how badly I need this bobblehead collection, check out these picks for tonight and the weekend.
All Eastern times and odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The hot ticket
Mets at the Phillies, 7:05 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV
More than 8
- Key trend: Over bets are 5-2 in the Mets’ last seven road games.
- The choice: More than 7.5 (-115)
We’ve been betting a lot of Mets games lately, haven’t we? It’s the third night in a row that we’ve led the newsletter with a Mets game this week, but unlike the last two nights we’ve bet against the NL East leaders, tonight we’re betting on the races. We have a great pitching match tonight between Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and New York’s Chris Bassitt, but if either of them have been watching the forecast, they might want to consider asking their managers to push them back. ‘one day.
The forecast in Philadelphia tonight calls for temperatures in the mid-80s and double-digit winds blowing toward center field. Citizens Bank is already one of baseball’s most batter-friendly parks. He ranks seventh overall according to Statcast’s Park Factors, and he’s also ranked seventh for smacking dingers. Add heat and wind, and the park becomes even smaller.
The coach is joined by PropStarz, Martin Green and Larry Hartstein to bring you the best bets for Friday. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
So with the total as low as 7.5 thanks to tonight’s pitching game, we have to take advantage of that. As good as Aaron Nola is, the majority of contact he allows is the flyball variety, and the 7.8% barrel rate against him isn’t great. It just rarely suffers because it doesn’t allow as much contact as your typical starter. Chris Bassitt doesn’t have Nola’s strikeout rate but attracts a lot more rushing contacts. Yet he is prone to the long ball when the batters also rise against him. The weather conditions are therefore terrible for both starters.
When it comes to offenses, the Phillies rank fifth in baseball with a 3.49 percent home run rate this season and ninth with a .319 wOBA. The Mets aren’t as prolific with longball, posting a 2.67 percent home run rate (18th), but their .322 wOBA ranks just ahead of the Phillies in eighth.
Here’s what SportsLine has to say about the game: We have SportsLine projection model support for the second night in a row, although it’s not quite as strong tonight. The model has a grade B clearance on top.
Cardinals at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV
Arizona Diamonds +158
The pick: Diamondbacks (+158) — Our beloved Arizona Diamondbacks are disrespected tonight! Not at the same level as the Washington Nationals last night (we love taking +310 bets, right?), but it’s still a lack of respect. The Cardinals have built a significant lead in the NL Central and are playing great baseball, but they’re being treated like the Dodgers at these prices. And it’s not the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have been pretty respectable this year while playing in a much tougher division than the Cardinals and would likely be close to .500 and in third place in NL Central.
Tonight, the Snakes face Miles Mikolas, who was effective for St. Louis, posting a 3.44 ERA in 149.1 innings. But he’s also a pitcher who rarely misses at bats, and his rushing rate this year isn’t as strong as in previous seasons. Mikolas has great control, which allows him to avoid big innings, but it’s always hard for me to trust starters with no shortage of at-bats as favorites. Especially on the road.
Key trend: Arizona is 8-2 in its last 10 home games.
Fulham vs Brentford, Saturday, 10 a.m. | TV: Peacock
The pick: Brentford (+190) — This is a strange line for me. I understand Fulham are at home, but they are a newly promoted side, and they probably shouldn’t be favored against Brentford. At least, not as much as it is. My first thought was that Fulham were overrated after pulling off a 2-2 draw with Liverpool to open the season, but Brentford have just beaten Manchester United 4-0 last weekend. If any of those teams are going to be overrated this weekend it’s Brentford, but they’re not, and that’s fine with me.
Brentford were impressive in their debut season in the Premier League last year and have four points from their first two games this season. It doesn’t look like a sophomore slump is brewing, which isn’t a surprise. Brentford are a club that doesn’t have world-class players but has an identity and players that fit the roles they are asked to play. Brentford also have an exceptional manager in Thomas Frank, who can understand an opponent’s weakness during a game and make the appropriate adjustments to exploit it. In other words, Brentford are a great side to back as underdogs, especially against a team that will be fighting relegation all year.
Bournemouth v Arsenal, Saturday, 12.30pm | Television: NBC
More than 2.5
The choice: more than 2.5 (-130) — We are only a few weeks into the season, but I have identified two fundamental principles on which we could base our entire season. The first is that we are going to wipe out Manchester United at every opportunity, but they won’t play until Monday against Liverpool. The second is Arsenal’s overs. Arsenal have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch so far as Mikel Arteta’s vision is finally starting to pay off, but there’s still a long way to go.
As fun and electric as Arsenal have been in attack with Gabriel Jesus and company, they are also a mess when they lose possession and prove vulnerable at the back. Last week, Arsenal allowed Leicester City to score twice despite an expected goals against (xG) number of just 0.6. But it was unlucky for Leicester as much as the players were left alone in areas they shouldn’t be and a shaky goalkeeper in Aaron Ramsdale, who sometimes hits me like a newborn fawn in the net. Arsenal could overcome this on their own, but given the difficulties Arsenal have in defending from set pieces and the size of Bournemouth making them dangerous from set pieces (they have already scored two goals) I wouldn’t be surprised if The Cherries knick one themselves.
Napoli vs Monza, Sunday, 12:30 p.m. | Television: Paramount+
More than 3.5
The choice: more than 3.5 (+130) — We’ve only had one week of action in Serie A so it’s far too early to draw conclusions, but I have two theories on Napoli. First of all, this club was written off far too quickly based on the players who left, without enough attention being paid to the talent who replaced them. This team is still good and will compete for the top four in Italy. The second theory is that Napoli could be the Arsenal of Serie A in that they will score a lot of goals while probably allowing a lot too.
That was certainly the case in last week’s 5-2 win over Hellas Verona, and we’ll see something of a callback this week against Monza. We bet Monza last week thinking it was good value against a Torino side who had lost their two best players, but while Monza threatened in attack it was awful defensively. The 2.6 xG allowed last week was the maximum of any Serie A side, and it was against a Torino side who are unlikely to set the world on fire this season. So if Torino could pull off that kind of performance, what could a Napoli side who scored five times last week do?
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Looking to bet on NFL preseason action tonight? SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein has excelled at capping Carolina Panthers games, and he’s got everything you need to know about Carolina’s game against the New England Patriots tonight.